I. Market Price Trend

The domestic soda ash market maintained an overall stable trend with a slight upward bias, with some enterprises raising prices moderately. A distinct divergence between light and heavy soda ash persisted, featuring a pattern of "light soda ash outperforming heavy soda ash": Light soda ash performed strongly, while heavy soda ash faced sluggish growth due to the downturn in the downstream float glass industry.  

II. Supply-Side Analysis

1. Output and Capacity Utilization Rate

• Output: 720,800 metric tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18,500 metric tons (-2.50%)  

• Capacity Utilization Rate: 82.68%, down 2.12 percentage points from the previous week (84.80%)  

2. Reasons for Supply Reduction

Equipment issues at multiple enterprises led to maintenance or production load reduction:  

• Henan Junhua: 800,000-ton/year capacity fully shut down for maintenance on Nov. 15, expected to last 12 days  

• Hubei Shuanghuan: Full shutdown for maintenance in early November, expected to last 15 days  

• Partial load operation at plants including China Salt Anhui Hongsifang, Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen, Tangshan Sanyou, and Shandong Haihua  

• Production reduction launched in early November at Jiangsu Debang, Ningxia Risheng, and Zhongtian Alkali Industry, affecting weekly output by approximately 25,000 metric tons  

3. Supply Outlook for Next Week

Output is expected to reach over 710,000 metric tons with a capacity utilization rate of over 81%, showing an overall narrow downward trend. Slow recovery from equipment problems will keep short-term supply pressure unchanged.  

III. Inventory Situation

1. Manufacturer Inventory

• Total Inventory: 1.6444 million metric tons, down 7,300 metric tons (-0.44%) from Monday and 62,900 metric tons (-3.68%) from last Thursday  

￮ Light soda ash: 757,100 metric tons (month-on-month decrease of 43,100 metric tons)  

￮ Heavy soda ash: 887,300 metric tons (month-on-month decrease of 19,800 metric tons)  

• Enterprises maintained smooth shipments; inventory at some high-inventory enterprises dropped significantly, with good order execution.  

2. Social Inventory

Approximately over 650,000 metric tons, an increase of over 10,000 metric tons from the previous period, with a limited growth rate.  

3. Downstream Inventory (Float Glass Industry)

• 33% of samples: On-site inventory for 20.87 days (+0.76 days), plant inventory + pending delivery for 32.38 days (+0.93 days)  

• 40% of samples: On-site inventory for 20.28 days (+0.58 days), plant inventory + pending delivery for 30.15 days (+0.72 days)  

• 47% of samples: On-site inventory for 19.75 days (+0.76 days), plant inventory + pending delivery for 29.69 days (+0.74 days)  

• Downstream raw material inventory remained stable, mainly focusing on replenishing inventory at low prices.  

IV. Order Status

• Pending orders of soda ash enterprises stood at over 12 days, a decrease of over 2 days from the previous period. Most orders are scheduled to be fulfilled by the end of this month or early next month.  

• Enterprises have basically completed order acceptance, facing little short-term sales pressure.  

• Light soda ash orders performed exceptionally well; due to tight supply in some regions, orders have been scheduled until the end of the month.  

V. Demand-Side Analysis

1. Float Glass

• Daily Melting Capacity: 158,100 metric tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,050 metric tons (one production line under cold repair, one under hot repair)  

• Stable production expected next week with no large-scale cold repair plans.  

2. Photovoltaic Glass

• Operating Capacity: 89,400 metric tons, stable month-on-month  

• A 700-metric-ton cold repair plan is scheduled next week, with limited overall impact.  

3. Demand Characteristics

• Downstream demand remained moderate, but sentiment for replenishing inventory at low prices strengthened.  

• Float glass demand continued to be sluggish due to the real estate downturn.  

• Photovoltaic glass, though in the peak season, saw "weak peak performance" with lower-than-expected growth.  

VI. Import and Export Situation

• October Export Volume: Over 210,000 metric tons  

• October Import Volume: Several hundred metric tons  

• Export performance remained strong, providing support to the domestic market, while imports were negligible.  

VII. Futures Market

• The main soda ash futures contract fluctuated downward this week (Nov. 17-21), with a weekly decline of 4.80%.  

• Opening price: 1,224 yuan/metric ton; Highest price: 1,236 yuan/metric ton; Lowest price: 1,156 yuan/metric ton; Closing price: 1,170 yuan/metric ton.  

• Trading volume increased but prices came under pressure, reflecting market concerns about long-term oversupply.  

VIII. Comprehensive Judgment

1. Short-Term Trend (1-2 Weeks)

The "stable with slight upward bias, divergence between light and heavy soda ash" pattern will continue:  

• Supporting Factors: Supply reduction, solid enterprise orders, and tight local supply  

• Constraining Factors: Moderate downstream demand, weak futures prices, and long-term oversupply expectations  

2. Mid-Term Outlook

The soda ash market is in a game between short-term marginal improvement and long-term oversupply:  

• Short-Term: Supply contraction due to equipment maintenance and declining inventory will support prices.  

• Long-Term: The contradiction between capacity expansion (3 million metric tons of new capacity in 2025) and weak demand (growth rate of only 10.9%) will intensify, maintaining the oversupply pattern.  

• The industry has entered a structural adjustment period; backward capacity elimination and industrial optimization will be the main themes in the next 1-2 years.  

IX. Investment Reference

• Spot Market: The price gap between light and heavy soda ash will widen. Light soda ash is worthy of moderate attention, while caution is advised for heavy soda ash.  

• Futures Market: Short-term volatility with a mid-term bearish bias; focus on support around the combined soda production cost line (approximately 1,200 yuan/metric ton).  

• Operation Strategy: Range-bound trading is recommended; monitor the progress of equipment maintenance recovery and downstream inventory replenishment.  

Conclusion: The domestic soda ash market is expected to rise steadily in the short term, but mid-to-long-term oversupply pressure persists. The divergence between light and heavy soda ash will continue: light soda ash will remain strong due to tight local supply-demand balance, while heavy soda ash will face sluggish rebound due to the weak float glass industry. Investors should seize phased opportunities and closely track changes in supply recovery and downstream demand.